San Diego-Tijuana Earthquake Scenario


Scenario for a Magnitude 6.9 Earthquake on the Rose Canyon Fault For Earthquake Risk Reduction in the San Diego Tijuana Region

The Scenario earthquake is a M6.9 crustal strike-slip Rose Canyon Fault rupture with a length of 69km, slip of a maximum of 2m, and an epicenter depth of 7.7km.

What is it? Scenario planning allows us to expand our thinking into community-wide realms that we don’t often get to think about in our everyday lives as earthquake professionals. The development of a realistic and plausible regionally based earthquake scenario allows the various disciplines charged with community earthquake resilience to work together to determine expected or likely outcomes.

Why do it? The San Diego-Tijuana metropolitan region is home to more than 5 million people living in an integrated cross-border community with interdependent infrastructures and economies. This interdependence of economies and communities demands that we assess ways to improve our resilience. This scenario will help address fundamental questions such as: How prepared are we as a region? What types of damages and impacts are expected and what types of impacts may be unexpected? What will the social and economic impacts be to our region from such an event? And most importantly, what can be done now to improve our earthquake safety and resilience?

Who is doing it? This earthquake scenario project has volunteer engineers, scientists, researchers, architects, geologists, seismologists, emergency managers, planners, building officials, and even social scientists and economists working together to determine not only how our community will respond in the event of a major earthquake, but steps we can take now to improve the disaster resilience of our cross-border region. These volunteers are organized into three interconnected working groups, as outlined in the graphic below, that will yield a final scenario report and policy recommendations for the region.

   arrow-earth-science arrow-engineering arrow-policy

How do I get involved? Send an email to the EERI San Diego Chapter. We are currently organizing stakeholder groups to help us study this scenario earthquake to determine its impacts on our community and what we can do about it. We also welcome stakeholders and other earthquake professionals to our working groups. Your help and support is appreciated!